Tuesday, April 14, 2009

K3 - KISSA KURSI KA !!!

Indian democracy , projected as the largest democracy in the world , is also undoubtedly the most puzzling one. The mood of the voter is tough to predict. It has become more puzzling in the recent years when the National Parties like Congress and BJP having lost its charm towards the regional parties. Regional parties , having become dominant forces in state-level politics have started to flex their muscle at the Delhi throne also.
The era of coalition weak governemnt has badly affected India to adopt strict and clear-cut policies towards the monster issues like foreign policy, terrorism and economic reforms. One would always talk of the large number of options people are getting with more parties, but, this option is presenting a hung parliament and a very weak coalition governement , with every party threatening to pull her leg , for their benefits.
Come the General Election -2009 and we are witnessing the Dance of Democracy. UPA as well as NDA as disintegrated. RJD, LJP have left the UPA allaince , and BJD has left the NDA alliance. Mayawati, AIADMK , TDP and left parties have made the third front. Now, Lalu, Paswan and Mulayam have come together to form the fourth front.
As per the latest exit-poll survey conducted by the India Today , none of these fronts are going to secure a clear majority, which simply means that post-election alliances , where these regional parties can bargain for any thing they wish , right from the high-profile ministeries to Prime - minister or deputy Prime-minister post. Poll survey shows Congress and its allies getting around 190 seats and NDA with 170 seats . Others constitute the rest of the 170 seats .
Although , it is very much clear that in none of the cases , Other can form the government without the support of BJP or Congress. Same holds true for these two major parties also. Now, the party which can do the best political bargaining stands to gain the most. Its this fragmented mandate of the people that local leaders like Mayawati and Sharad Pawar have strated dreaming about their prospects as PM . And , its really unfortunate for us ,we cannot unrule their possiblility of becoming an accidental PM.
Restructuring of the alliances have taken place before the election . Difference in the policies of the parties was the last reason for this as never were they having common policies.The sole reason was difference in seat sharing. What united all of them was their political ambitions. Now, to further place them in the better position to negotiate , these parties have detached themselves from the main alliances just to improve their tally , by contesting on the maximum number of seats. Thats the reason ,Mulayam , Lalu have decided to contest without Congress in Bihar and Jharkhand . Same with BJD-BJP allaince in Orissa where 11 year old alliance was broken . Even, Sharad Pawar's NCP is contesting elections against Congress across the country except Maharastra and Goa.
BJP is looking to improve its prevoius tally in West and Central India but this gain cannot compensate the loss its incurring in states of UP, Orissa and southern states especially Tamil Nadu. BJP -JD(U) hopes for a better performance in Bihar and Jharkhand on the account of the welfare and devlopements programs initiated by Nitish govt and weakening of Sibu Soren's JMM respectively. Gujarat under the leadership of Narendra Modi is as vibrant as ever. The popularity of Modi is Gujarat is even more than BJP's Prime Ministerial Candidate L.K.Advani. Modi is surely going to be the BJP's next poster boy with Varun who has shot him to prime time media coverage putting him at the same level as his cousin Rahul Gandhi.
Uttar Pradesh with 80 odd seats and Bihar with 40-odd seats have always played a vital role in deciding who will be hoisting the tricolor at Red Fort , next 15th August. But, the caste politics have given rise to leaders like Lalu, Paswan, Mulayam and Mayawati. Mayawati is riding high with the new formulae of Dalit-Brahmin combination , unique of its kind. She has even rolled out the carpet to welcome Muslims after slapping NSA charges against Varun.
In West Bengal, direct fight between Trinamool and Left is to be witnessed . Mamta Bannerjee has seriously hampered her cause in the Nano case. If West Bengal still stuck with her , then it is surely going to be the bad luck of the Bengalis. Calcutta once, centre of the trade and capital of British India has continoulsy lost its charm and investor confidence thanks to the frequent Unions strike and conservative policies of Left Government. Thats , the reason the Calcutta or Kolkata is still seems untouched by the waves of globalisation and ITisation. Now, that left has changed its stance , its Mamta who drove out Tata's out of Singur.
The countdown has begun for the biggest show of Democracy on the planet , with less than 24 hours to go... This month -long drama has eclipsed the TRP ratings soap-operas, crowd at Multiplexes and thrown away IPL out of India. Lets hope that who so ever wins , the next government works for the people of India uprooting the problems of poverty, corruption , unemployment , terrorism and other social issues.

4 comments:

  1. The only two possible scenarios might be,
    1) UPA Government (including the 4th front) externally supported by Left ( possible if Congress gets 140+ on its own, which I highly doubt)
    2) NDA govt. internally or externally supported by Mayawati, Jayalalita, TDP and TRS(possible if BJP gets ~ 150 on its own, which is quite probable as in my opinion anti-incumbancy is far deeper than what meets the eyes)

    Bottomline : India has to choose the lesser evil out of Left or Mayawati.

    PS: "...In West Bengal, direct fight between Trinamool and Left is to be witnessed..." . Having got the real feel of ground reality of Bengal, where things change so slowly, I highly doubt that Mamata will do as good as the media predicts. Just look at the victory margins that Left enjoyed wherever it won in 2004. Mamata may very well reduce the margins,but even 10+ for Congress+Mamata in Bengal is really difficult.

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  2. The support that Mamta shows to have is really mirage. She and Sharad Pawar are the ones who separated from Congress and now, they are joining their hands. The principles and ideologies of politicians are biting the dust.
    "Mamta Bannerjee has seriously hampered her cause in the Nano case. If West Bengal still stuck with her , then it is surely going to be the bad luck of the Bengalis"

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  3. Its high time india adopts a two party democracy at the centre . This is just a sign for things to come . 20 yrs down the line situation will be worse with many more parties cropping up like weeds.

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  4. hmmmm accha likhe ho
    Think.....
    Why is that after 40 years of Rule in WB of left, WB still one of the poorest.
    Left had a simple rule.
    It tried to be robin hood always, corrupted one actually.
    it stole from the rich and gave only meagre amount to its poor and so the rich got poorer and the poor always thought that the left was their messiah.
    Mamata Didi, hehehe. Trying to do the same. only here the rich was quich enough to leave WB in time. and on the top of it she thinks that if she won't ride a NANO, WB won't buy it. I think people will ride the NANO over her.

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